Synthestat · Netherlands · population QA

NL 1:1 population synthesis QA cycle

Country-specific layer for synthetic people in households, dwellings, real building stock where available, hidden-population overlays, and work/school assignment evidence.

Board: synthestat-population-qa · Tenant: synthestat · Country: NL · Overall status: running

Ideal-country quality criteria: impossible 1:1 benchmark

This is the common gold-standard benchmark for an ideal country. It is intentionally impossible to fully satisfy: complete success would mean a 1:1 replica of the real population where every person, household, dwelling, attribute, and assignment is exactly represented. The QA page uses it as an asymptote and gap taxonomy, not as a release promise.

Apply this same rubric to this country’s latest run, then report which needs are measured, constrained, modelled, unavailable, or blocked.

Need	Unachievable ideal	QA evidence we require instead	Why perfection cannot be achieved
Complete de jure resident coverage	Every real resident represented exactly once in the right country, municipality, small area, household, and dwelling.	Synthetic person count equals official population at all enforced geographies; no unexplained duplicate, missing, or out-of-universe people.	A true 1:1 resident list is a confidential population register and changes continuously; Synthestat can only match official aggregates and declared source universes.
Complete attribute truth	Each synthetic person has the same age, sex, household role, education, occupation, industry, origin, health proxy, income proxy, and lifecycle state as the corresponding real person.	Published marginal and cross-tab constraints pass within HARD/FIRM/SOFT tolerances; modelled fields carry uncertainty and measured/constrained/modelled provenance.	Official releases do not expose a complete individual joint distribution, and many attributes are survey-derived, lagged, suppressed, or unavailable at fine geography.
Perfect household and family structure	Every household contains the exact real members and relationships, including multi-generation, partnership, child, shared, institutional, and edge-case arrangements.	Household totals, household-type distributions, age/sex/role consistency, fertility/child constraints, and structural invariants pass with explicit residuals.	Household membership is sensitive microdata; public sources usually expose only aggregate household/family tables and partial cross-tabs.
Exact dwelling and building grounding	Every household is assigned to its real dwelling and building with exact occupancy, vacancy, dwelling type, floor area, tenure, and address-level geography.	Dwelling/building capacity checks pass; vacancy/second-home/institutional dwellings are represented or explicitly unavailable; building links have source provenance.	Many countries lack open address-level registers; dwelling occupancy is confidential and time-varying.
Complete de facto and hidden-population overlays	Homeless, undocumented, refugees, students away from home, seasonal, institutional, tourists, and daytime populations are all represented with exact location and timing.	Overlay layers use interval estimates, source-specific quality flags, and never silently modify de jure HARD constraints.	Hidden populations are partly unobserved by definition; ethical/privacy constraints forbid exact person-level labels.
Exact school, workplace, facility, and mobility assignment	Every person is assigned to the real school, workplace, care provider, commute, and daily activity chain they use.	Assignment layers use official registers/OD flows where available; modelled assignments are flagged and validated only against aggregate flows/capacities.	Operational assignments are usually protected registers or dynamic behavioural data; Phase 1 must not imply they are known.
Full joint-distribution realism	The full multivariate joint distribution is identical to reality across all attributes, households, geography, and rare subgroups.	High-priority marginals/cross-tabs pass; sparse zones and prior-dominated attributes are clearly marked with quality tiers and credible intervals.	The joint distribution is non-identifiable from published marginals; IPF/BN/hierarchical pooling choose plausible distributions, not truth.
Zero uncertainty and zero lag	All values are current today and known without error.	Every output records reference period, retrieval timestamp, lag, confidence, uncertainty bounds, and degradation decisions.	Official statistics are lagged, revised, sampled, suppressed, and harmonized after collection.
Privacy-safe yet maximally detailed release	The system releases maximum useful detail while creating zero re-identification risk.	Release mode, k-anonymity/cell safeguards, perturbation/aggregation policy, and sensitive-field treatment are explicit.	Fine-area synthetic microdata can still create structurally unique records; synthetic does not mean anonymous.
Perfect reproducibility and auditability	Any user can trace every output record to exact source snapshots, transformations, constraints, relaxations, seeds, and code versions.	Run manifests, source provenance, checksums, frozen extracts, seeds, versioned crosswalks, validation reports, and relaxation logs are complete.	This is approachable but never final: source portals, classifications, geography, and code keep changing, so audits must be continuously renewed.

Population output status

People	Target population	National coverage	Absolute shortfall	Households	Dwellings	Houses/buildings	Max marginal deviation	HARD status	Run
5	—	—	—	5	5	4	0.00%	pass_exact	`nl_population_review_cycle1_fa78aabf_seed420987`

Deviation is the maximum absolute relative error across collected HARD/FIRM/SOFT marginal constraints in the latest review bundle. GUIDE/INFORMATIONAL priors are excluded. National target/coverage are read from build_manifest.json when available and override any visual impression of completion.

running

todo

done

Datasets and distributions

Lists come from the latest run bundle: source_provenance.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, and build_manifest.json.

Summary

Datasets used	7
Distributions available	39
Constraints/distributions used in synthesis	27
Constraint types	FIRM: 7, GUIDE: 18, HARD: 3, SOFT: 11
Dataset variants	current: 1, literature: 11, robust: 27
Finest-geography status	constrained: 27, measured: 1, modelled: 11

Source gaps

The current Netherlands live path is sample-download capable, but it is still a probe-and-normalization bridge rather than a full-country CBS extraction pipeline.
Open BAG/PDOK building geometry and dwelling records are still handled through the seeded slice rather than a full bulk XML-GML ingestion path.
Occupation and industry detail still need deeper registry and model integration beyond the current CBS demographic bridge.

Datasets used

Dataset/source ID
`NL_BAG_buildings`
`NL_CBS_BUURT_POPULATION`
`NL_CBS_DEMOGRAPHICS_MARITAL`
`NL_CBS_HOUSEHOLDS`
`NL_CBS_INCOME`
`NL_CBS_ORIGIN`
`NL_PDOK_buurt_boundaries`

Best source by distribution family

Distribution family	Dataset/source ID
`D01_demographics_finest`	`NL_CBS_BUURT_POPULATION`
`D02_marital_status`	`NL_CBS_DEMOGRAPHICS_MARITAL`
`D12_household_type`	`NL_CBS_HOUSEHOLDS`
`building_stock`	`NL_BAG_buildings`
`geography_boundaries`	`NL_PDOK_buurt_boundaries`
`income`	`NL_CBS_INCOME`
`origin_distribution`	`NL_CBS_ORIGIN`

Available distributions / priors in registry

Spec	Label	Type	Geo	Status	Variant	Confidence	Data URI
`C01_education_occupation_coupling`	Education-occupation coupling strength	GUIDE	national	modelled	literature	0.64	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C02_assortative_mating_education`	Assortative mating by education	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	literature	0.65	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C03_assortative_mating_age`	Assortative mating by age	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	literature	0.72	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C04_assortative_mating_origin`	Assortative mating by origin	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	literature	0.66	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C05_spatial_sorting_education`	Spatial sorting by education	GUIDE	national	modelled	literature	0.74	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C06_spatial_sorting_income`	Spatial sorting by income	GUIDE	national	modelled	literature	0.74	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C07_spatial_sorting_origin`	Spatial sorting by origin	GUIDE	national	modelled	literature	0.76	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C08_intergenerational_income_elasticity`	Intergenerational income elasticity	GUIDE	national	modelled	literature	0.62	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C09_intergenerational_occupation_transmission`	Intergenerational occupation transmission	GUIDE	national	modelled	literature	0.62	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C10_commuting_mode_distance`	Commuting mode × distance × occupation × region	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	literature	0.68	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C11_health_age_sex_education`	Health × age × sex × education	GUIDE	national	modelled	literature	0.66	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`D01_age_sex_nuts3`	Age × sex at NUTS-3	HARD	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.74	`docs/wiki/compiled/D01_age_sex_nuts3.md`
`D01_census_age_sex_nuts3`	Census age × sex at NUTS-3	HARD	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.74	`docs/wiki/compiled/D01_census_age_sex_nuts3.md`
`D01_nl_buurt`	Age × sex at buurt level	HARD	buurt	measured	robust	0.99	`docs/wiki/compiled/D01_nl_buurt.md`
`D02_marital_nuts3`	Marital status × age × sex at NUTS-3	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D02_marital_nuts3.md`
`D03_origin_age_sex`	Origin group × age × sex	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D03_origin_age_sex.md`
`D04_religion_age_sex_region`	Religion × age × sex × region	GUIDE	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D04_religion_age_sex_region.md`
`D05_census_education_nuts3`	Census education at NUTS-3	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D05_census_education_nuts3.md`
`D05_education_nuts2`	Education at NUTS-2	FIRM	NUTS-2	constrained	current	0.7	`docs/wiki/compiled/D05_education_nuts2.md`
`D06_employment_age_sex_education`	Employment status × age × sex × education	FIRM	unknown	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D06_employment_age_sex_education.md`
`D07_occupation_isco3`	Occupation ISCO-3 distribution	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D07_occupation_isco3.md`
`D08_occupation_education`	Occupation × education	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D08_occupation_education.md`
`D09_industry_nace2`	Industry NACE-2 distribution	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D09_industry_nace2.md`
`D10_income_education_occupation`	Income × education × occupation	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D10_income_education_occupation.md`
`D11_income_household_type_region`	Income × household type × region	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D11_income_household_type_region.md`
`D12_household_type_size_region`	Household type × size × region	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D12_household_type_size_region.md`
`D13_children_mother_age_education`	Children × mother age × education	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D13_children_mother_age_education.md`
`D14_partner_age_gap_homogamy`	Partner age gap × homogamy	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D14_partner_age_gap_homogamy.md`
`D15_coresidence_structure`	Co-residence structure	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D15_coresidence_structure.md`
`D16_household_income_type_region`	Household income × type × region	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D16_household_income_type_region.md`
`D17_education_mobility`	Education mobility	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D17_education_mobility.md`
`D18_occupation_given_education`	Occupation \| education	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D18_occupation_given_education.md`
`D19_employment_given_demographics`	Employment \| demographics	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D19_employment_given_demographics.md`
`D20_birth_intervals`	Birth intervals	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D20_birth_intervals.md`
`D21_age_first_birth`	Age at first birth × education × cohort	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D21_age_first_birth.md`
`D22_age_leaving_home`	Age leaving home	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D22_age_leaving_home.md`
`D23_divorce_duration_children_education`	Divorce × duration × children × education	GUIDE	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D23_divorce_duration_children_education.md`
`D24_age_marriage_sex_education`	Age at marriage × sex × education	GUIDE	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D24_age_marriage_sex_education.md`
`D25_internal_migration`	Internal migration	FIRM	unknown	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D25_internal_migration.md`

Constraints/distributions used in synthesis manifest

Constraint or distribution ID
`CORR_OCC_EMPLOYMENT`
`D01`
`D12`
`EMPLOYMENT_CODE_LINK`
`FIRM`
`GUIDE`
`HARD`
`HARMONIZATION`
`HH_CHILD_ADULT`
`HH_COUPLE_TWO_ADULTS`
`HH_SINGLE_SIZE_ONE`
`HH_SIZE_PLAUSIBLE`
`HMN_EDUCATION`
`HMN_HOUSEHOLD_TYPE`
`HMN_INDUSTRY`
`HMN_MARITAL`
`HMN_OCCUPATION`
`HMN_ORIGIN`
`HMN_SEX`
`INFORMATIONAL`
`MODEL_FALLBACK_RATE`
`SPATIAL`
`SPT_BUILDING_COORDS`
`SPT_DWELLING_BUILDING_REF`
`SPT_HH_DWELLING_REF`
`STRUCTURAL`
`XCN_COMPARABILITY`

Current country tasks

ID	Title	Assignee	Status	Created	Latest summary
t_32fe9356	NL cycle 1 downloader freeze after source follow-ups	synth-downloader	running	2026-05-19 19:59:22 CEST
t_1fd4394c	NL cycle 2 review after source-upgraded model rerun	synth-reviewer	todo	2026-05-19 20:00:12 CEST
t_ae1817db	NL cycle 2 model rerun after source/download follow-ups	synth-modeler	todo	2026-05-19 19:59:52 CEST
t_5944a28f	NL cycle 1 distribution-source follow-up after NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES	synth-distributions-researcher	done	2026-05-19 19:59:07 CEST	Completed NL cycle-1 distribution-source follow-up after NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES. Wrote findings, downloader-ready extraction specs, refreshed the distribution evidence board, and appended a manager update; NL is not evidence-exhausted, with CBS/Eurostat source IDs identified for household/dwelling, inst
t_b9950d6c	NL cycle 1 marginal/source follow-up after NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES	synth-marginals-researcher	done	2026-05-19 19:59:06 CEST	Completed NL cycle-1 marginal/source follow-up after NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES and wrote the required handoffs under /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/marginals/. Identified concrete official CBS/PDOK/Kadaster/DUO/COA/Rijksoverheid source queue for downloader, with explicit EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_PUB
t_40840a5c	Review NL population synthesis bundle (cycle 1)	synth-reviewer	done	2026-05-19 18:35:28 CEST	Reviewed the NL cycle-1 population bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/NL/nl_population_review_cycle1_fa78aabf_seed420987 and wrote the reviewer report at /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/reviewer/2026-05-19_164411Z_NL_population_review_cycle1.md. Verdict NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES: bundle is
t_8187172c	NL population synthesis review bundle build (cycle 1)	synth-modeler	done	2026-05-19 18:35:12 CEST	Built and verified the NL population QA cycle-1 review bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/NL/nl_population_review_cycle1_fa78aabf_seed420987. The bundle is contract-complete for internal review, HARD residuals pass exactly (59 pass / 3 skip across 62 validation rows), with explicit unavailable m
t_c692bc83	orchestrate NL population synthesis QA loop	synth-manager	done	2026-05-19 18:34:06 CEST	Routed NL population synthesis QA cycle 1: created synth-modeler bundle-build task t_8187172c and dependent synth-reviewer bundle-review task t_40840a5c. Updated /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/manager_updates.md with bottleneck summary, routing decisions, blockers, and next branch instr

Process

Manager kickoff

synth-manager creates and controls the country loop.

Model build

synth-modeler generates the review bundle: people, households, dwellings/buildings or unavailable markers, overlays, assignments, manifests, residuals, diagnostics, uncertainty, provenance.

Reviewer gate

synth-reviewer audits constraints, marginals, household/family realism, hidden populations, dwelling/building grounding, work/school assignment, uncertainty, provenance, and privacy.

Branch

PASS finalizes; NEEDS_MODEL_FIX routes back to modeler; NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES routes to marginal/distribution researchers then downloader; exhausted evidence/model plateau stops for human decision.

Quality gates and stop conditions

PASS: satisfactory for declared country evidence tier and internal review mode.
NEEDS_MODEL_FIX: model logic, bundle, uncertainty, household/dwelling/assignment issue.
NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES: missing marginal or joint/conditional evidence; researchers then downloader.
EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: source search cannot responsibly improve the output.
MODEL_IMPROVEMENT_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: modeler cannot materially improve or diagnostics plateau.