Synthestat · Sweden · population QA

SE 1:1 population synthesis QA cycle

Country-specific layer for synthetic people in households, dwellings, real building stock where available, hidden-population overlays, and work/school assignment evidence.

Board: synthestat-population-qa · Tenant: synthestat · Country: SE · Overall status: running

Ideal-country quality criteria: impossible 1:1 benchmark

This is the common gold-standard benchmark for an ideal country. It is intentionally impossible to fully satisfy: complete success would mean a 1:1 replica of the real population where every person, household, dwelling, attribute, and assignment is exactly represented. The QA page uses it as an asymptote and gap taxonomy, not as a release promise.

Apply this same rubric to this country’s latest run, then report which needs are measured, constrained, modelled, unavailable, or blocked.

Need	Unachievable ideal	QA evidence we require instead	Why perfection cannot be achieved
Complete de jure resident coverage	Every real resident represented exactly once in the right country, municipality, small area, household, and dwelling.	Synthetic person count equals official population at all enforced geographies; no unexplained duplicate, missing, or out-of-universe people.	A true 1:1 resident list is a confidential population register and changes continuously; Synthestat can only match official aggregates and declared source universes.
Complete attribute truth	Each synthetic person has the same age, sex, household role, education, occupation, industry, origin, health proxy, income proxy, and lifecycle state as the corresponding real person.	Published marginal and cross-tab constraints pass within HARD/FIRM/SOFT tolerances; modelled fields carry uncertainty and measured/constrained/modelled provenance.	Official releases do not expose a complete individual joint distribution, and many attributes are survey-derived, lagged, suppressed, or unavailable at fine geography.
Perfect household and family structure	Every household contains the exact real members and relationships, including multi-generation, partnership, child, shared, institutional, and edge-case arrangements.	Household totals, household-type distributions, age/sex/role consistency, fertility/child constraints, and structural invariants pass with explicit residuals.	Household membership is sensitive microdata; public sources usually expose only aggregate household/family tables and partial cross-tabs.
Exact dwelling and building grounding	Every household is assigned to its real dwelling and building with exact occupancy, vacancy, dwelling type, floor area, tenure, and address-level geography.	Dwelling/building capacity checks pass; vacancy/second-home/institutional dwellings are represented or explicitly unavailable; building links have source provenance.	Many countries lack open address-level registers; dwelling occupancy is confidential and time-varying.
Complete de facto and hidden-population overlays	Homeless, undocumented, refugees, students away from home, seasonal, institutional, tourists, and daytime populations are all represented with exact location and timing.	Overlay layers use interval estimates, source-specific quality flags, and never silently modify de jure HARD constraints.	Hidden populations are partly unobserved by definition; ethical/privacy constraints forbid exact person-level labels.
Exact school, workplace, facility, and mobility assignment	Every person is assigned to the real school, workplace, care provider, commute, and daily activity chain they use.	Assignment layers use official registers/OD flows where available; modelled assignments are flagged and validated only against aggregate flows/capacities.	Operational assignments are usually protected registers or dynamic behavioural data; Phase 1 must not imply they are known.
Full joint-distribution realism	The full multivariate joint distribution is identical to reality across all attributes, households, geography, and rare subgroups.	High-priority marginals/cross-tabs pass; sparse zones and prior-dominated attributes are clearly marked with quality tiers and credible intervals.	The joint distribution is non-identifiable from published marginals; IPF/BN/hierarchical pooling choose plausible distributions, not truth.
Zero uncertainty and zero lag	All values are current today and known without error.	Every output records reference period, retrieval timestamp, lag, confidence, uncertainty bounds, and degradation decisions.	Official statistics are lagged, revised, sampled, suppressed, and harmonized after collection.
Privacy-safe yet maximally detailed release	The system releases maximum useful detail while creating zero re-identification risk.	Release mode, k-anonymity/cell safeguards, perturbation/aggregation policy, and sensitive-field treatment are explicit.	Fine-area synthetic microdata can still create structurally unique records; synthetic does not mean anonymous.
Perfect reproducibility and auditability	Any user can trace every output record to exact source snapshots, transformations, constraints, relaxations, seeds, and code versions.	Run manifests, source provenance, checksums, frozen extracts, seeds, versioned crosswalks, validation reports, and relaxation logs are complete.	This is approachable but never final: source portals, classifications, geography, and code keep changing, so audits must be continuously renewed.

Population output status

People	Target population	National coverage	Absolute shortfall	Households	Dwellings	Houses/buildings	Max marginal deviation	HARD status	Run
8	—	—	—	8	8	3	0.00%	pass_exact	`se_population_review_cycle1_a5ad12d7_seed420987`

Deviation is the maximum absolute relative error across collected HARD/FIRM/SOFT marginal constraints in the latest review bundle. GUIDE/INFORMATIONAL priors are excluded. National target/coverage are read from build_manifest.json when available and override any visual impression of completion.

running

todo

done

Datasets and distributions

Lists come from the latest run bundle: source_provenance.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, and build_manifest.json.

Summary

Datasets used	0
Distributions available	0
Constraints/distributions used in synthesis	35
Constraint types	FIRM: 7, GUIDE: 18, HARD: 2, SOFT: 11
Dataset variants	—
Finest-geography status	—

Source gaps

No source gaps listed.

Datasets used

Dataset/source ID
None listed yet.

Best source by distribution family

Distribution family	Dataset/source ID
None listed yet.

Available distributions / priors in registry

Spec	Label	Type	Geo	Status	Variant	Confidence	Data URI
None listed yet.

Constraints/distributions used in synthesis manifest

Constraint or distribution ID
`CORR_OCC_EMPLOYMENT`
`D01`
`D12`
`EMPLOYMENT_CODE_LINK`
`HH_CHILD_ADULT`
`HH_COUPLE_TWO_ADULTS`
`HH_SINGLE_SIZE_ONE`
`HH_SIZE_PLAUSIBLE`
`HMN_AGE_RANGE`
`HMN_BIRTH_DATE`
`HMN_BUILDING_SCHEMA`
`HMN_DWELLING_BUILDING_REF`
`HMN_DWELLING_SCHEMA`
`HMN_EDUCATION`
`HMN_EDUCATION_AGE`
`HMN_EDUCATION_GROUP`
`HMN_EMPLOYMENT`
`HMN_HOUSEHOLD_DWELLING_REF`
`HMN_HOUSEHOLD_SCHEMA`
`HMN_HOUSEHOLD_TYPE`
`HMN_INDUSTRY`
`HMN_MARITAL`
`HMN_OCCUPATION`
`HMN_ORIGIN`
`HMN_PERSON_HOUSEHOLD_REF`
`HMN_PERSON_SCHEMA`
`HMN_RETIRED_AGE`
`HMN_SEX`
`MODEL_FALLBACK_RATE`
`SPT_BUILDING_COORDS`
`SPT_DWELLING_BUILDING_REF`
`SPT_DWELLING_HOUSEHOLD_REF`
`SPT_HH_DWELLING_REF`
`SPT_PERSON_HOUSEHOLD_REF`
`XCN_COMPARABILITY`

Current country tasks

ID	Title	Assignee	Status	Created	Latest summary
t_1bbf9f63	SE population QA cycle 2 downloader: freeze/catalogue SCB, household-prior, geography, anchor sources	synth-downloader	running	2026-05-19 20:00:15 CEST
t_e666395d	SE cycle 2 household/family/assignment distribution source closure	synth-distributions-researcher	running	2026-05-19 19:58:48 CEST
t_fd61cf13	SE cycle 2 marginal and hidden-population source closure	synth-marginals-researcher	running	2026-05-19 19:58:47 CEST
t_1878ab53	SE cycle 2 source freeze from other_synthesis ingest	synth-downloader	running	2026-05-19 19:58:30 CEST
t_66bdf062	SE population QA cycle 2 reviewer: inspect non-toy/source-upgraded bundle	synth-reviewer	todo	2026-05-19 20:00:51 CEST
t_29a0c9c4	SE population QA cycle 2 modeler: build non-toy review bundle from frozen sources and local methodology	synth-modeler	todo	2026-05-19 20:00:33 CEST
t_f8b6f296	SE cycle 2 review after other_synthesis-informed rerun	synth-reviewer	todo	2026-05-19 20:00:09 CEST
t_82562c50	SE cycle 2 non-toy model rerun after other_synthesis source freeze	synth-modeler	todo	2026-05-19 19:59:38 CEST
t_f9075c12	SE population QA cycle 2 distribution research: household/family/assignment/hidden priors	synth-distributions-researcher	done	2026-05-19 19:59:57 CEST	Completed Sweden cycle-2 distribution prior research and wrote the requested SE population_distribution_priors handoff plus mirrored distribution findings/extraction/latest files. Key result: the claimed local sweden_household_composition bundle is absent and must be rebuilt/mirrored; SCB household/
t_ff30afb9	SE population QA cycle 2 source research: SCB DeSO/household/building/hidden marginal targets	synth-marginals-researcher	done	2026-05-19 19:59:41 CEST	Completed SE population marginal/source research and wrote downloader-ready source handoff at /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/researcher/2026-05-19_2014_SE_population_marginals_sources.md. The P0 SCB marginal/geography backbone is mostly downloadable now, while Lantmäteriet anchors, stal
t_20de640c	SE cycle 1b: ingest user-provided other_synthesis methodology before rerun	synth-modeler	done	2026-05-19 16:11:56 CEST	Ingested the now-readable Sweden /home/synthestat/other_synthesis methodology and wrote the SE modeller handoff. The handoff extracts SCB/DeSO sources, hierarchical fitting/fallback logic, household/home/building/anchor modelling approach, hidden-population gaps, next model changes, and downloader/r
t_33ff07f7	SE population synthesis QA cycle 1: review bundle	synth-reviewer	done	2026-05-19 15:56:38 CEST	Reviewed SE cycle-1 population bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/SE/se_population_review_cycle1_a5ad12d7_seed420987. Verdict NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES: bundle is contract-complete and HARD/FIRM residuals pass in the seeded slice, but it is only an 8-person/two-test-zone fixture with hidden overlays, w
t_987d9d2d	SE population synthesis QA cycle 1: build review bundle	synth-modeler	done	2026-05-19 15:56:20 CEST	Built and verified the SE population QA cycle 1 review bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/SE/se_population_review_cycle1_a5ad12d7_seed420987. The bundle is contract-complete for internal review, with persons/households/dwellings/building assignments present and hidden-population plus work/school
t_0c611b3b	orchestrate SE population synthesis QA loop	synth-manager	done	2026-05-19 15:55:07 CEST	Branched SE population QA after local other_synthesis ingestion: created parallel marginals/distributions research tasks, a dependent downloader freeze task, then dependent cycle-2 modeler and reviewer tasks. Updated /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/manager_updates.md with bottleneck summ

Process

Manager kickoff

synth-manager creates and controls the country loop.

Model build

synth-modeler generates the review bundle: people, households, dwellings/buildings or unavailable markers, overlays, assignments, manifests, residuals, diagnostics, uncertainty, provenance.

Reviewer gate

synth-reviewer audits constraints, marginals, household/family realism, hidden populations, dwelling/building grounding, work/school assignment, uncertainty, provenance, and privacy.

Branch

PASS finalizes; NEEDS_MODEL_FIX routes back to modeler; NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES routes to marginal/distribution researchers then downloader; exhausted evidence/model plateau stops for human decision.

Quality gates and stop conditions

PASS: satisfactory for declared country evidence tier and internal review mode.
NEEDS_MODEL_FIX: model logic, bundle, uncertainty, household/dwelling/assignment issue.
NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES: missing marginal or joint/conditional evidence; researchers then downloader.
EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: source search cannot responsibly improve the output.
MODEL_IMPROVEMENT_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: modeler cannot materially improve or diagnostics plateau.