xk_population_national_candidate_2024_muni_bf4a4f87_seed420987

Output status

Run files

Datasets and distributions

Lists come from the latest run bundle: source_provenance.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, and build_manifest.json.

Datasets used

Best source by distribution family

Available distributions / priors in registry

Constraints/distributions used in synthesis manifest

model_notes.md

# XK national-scale population candidate — ASK 2024 municipality controls

Run id: `xk_population_national_candidate_2024_muni_bf4a4f87_seed420987`

This bundle replaces the previous 8-person seeded-slice claim path for national-scale inspection with a concrete Kosovo-wide candidate built from existing provenanced ASK PXWeb exports found under `other_branch/data/raw/countries/XK/ask/pxweb_exports`. It is not a PASS and not a production/release artefact. It is a municipality-level, aggregate-constrained candidate for model/reviewer inspection.

National targets and row counts:
- Official ASK/KAS 2024 population target: 1,602,515; synthetic persons emitted: 1,602,515; HARD residual 0.
- Official ASK/KAS 2024 household target: 366,595; synthetic households emitted: 366,595; HARD residual 0.
- ASK/KAS 2024 conventional dwelling target: 556,779; synthetic/modelled dwelling records emitted: 556,791; FIRM residual 0.

Constraint precedence is preserved: no HARD constraints were relaxed. Where evidence is missing, this bundle emits unavailable markers or C-tier degradation rather than fabricating precision.

Major caveats:
- Geography is municipality-level only, not settlement/address/building-level.
- No real building IDs or KCA cadastral assignments are integrated; `synthetic_building_assignments.unavailable.json` is explicit.
- Household composition is modelled only enough to reconcile population and household-size controls. Relationship/family realism is not evidenced.
- Hidden-population overlays, work/school/facility assignments, education/employment/occupation/industry/income/origin/nationality/marital-status attributes are unavailable/not generated in this national candidate.
- The 10+ household-size category receives modelled overflow allocation because ASK exposes a top-coded household-size category; exact >10 distribution is unmeasured.

Recommended reviewer verdict category if no further evidence is added: EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW or NEEDS_SOURCE_UPGRADE for production readiness, not PASS-for-release.

build_manifest.json

{
  "country": "XK",
  "run_id": "xk_population_national_candidate_2024_muni_bf4a4f87_seed420987",
  "created_at": "2026-05-19T18:25:22.845972+00:00",
  "project_root": "/home/synthestat",
  "git_commit": "a5ad12d74bcf64a2c256e1fe83d99cc700e02bba-dirty",
  "git_dirty": true,
  "random_seed": 420987,
  "source_catalogue_version": "ASK selected PXWeb exports validation 2026-05-06 plus source hashes in source_provenance.json",
  "geography_version": "ASK census 2024 municipality dimension, 39 entries including national KOSOVA aggregate; 38 municipalities synthesized",
  "classification_crosswalk_versions": {
    "education": "not_generated",
    "occupation": "not_generated",
    "industry": "not_generated"
  },
  "constraints_used": [
    "XK_ASK_CENSUS2024_POPULATION_TOTAL",
    "XK_ASK_CENSUS2024_HOUSEHOLDS_TOTAL",
    "XK_ASK_CENSUS2024_CONVENTIONAL_DWELLINGS_TOTAL"
  ],
  "constraints_relaxed": [
    {
      "source": "ASK census2024 household-size municipality",
      "municipality": "Fushë Kosovë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_009",
      "reason": "Municipality household-size lower-bound total exceeded age-sex population; preserved HARD population and household totals and relaxed FIRM within-municipality size interpretation.",
      "residual_persons": 78,
      "tolerance": "explicitly degraded C-tier municipality candidate; not release-pass"
    },
    {
      "source": "ASK census2024 household-size municipality",
      "municipality": "Kamenicë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_010",
      "reason": "Municipality household-size lower-bound total exceeded age-sex population; preserved HARD population and household totals and relaxed FIRM within-municipality size interpretation.",
      "residual_persons": 43,
      "tolerance": "explicitly degraded C-tier municipality candidate; not release-pass"
    },
    {
      "source": "ASK census2024 household-size municipality",
      "municipality": "Novobërdë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_014",
      "reason": "Municipality household-size lower-bound total exceeded age-sex population; preserved HARD population and household totals and relaxed FIRM within-municipality size interpretation.",
      "residual_persons": 5,
      "tolerance": "explicitly degraded C-tier municipality candidate; not release-pass"
    },
    {
      "source": "ASK census2024 household-size municipality",
      "municipality": "Prishtinë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_019",
      "reason": "Municipality household-size lower-bound total exceeded age-sex population; preserved HARD population and household totals and relaxed FIRM within-municipality size interpretation.",
      "residual_persons": 126,
      "tolerance": "explicitly degraded C-tier municipality candidate; not release-pass"
    },
    {
      "source": "ASK census2024 household-size municipality",
      "municipality": "Shtërpcë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_023",
      "reason": "Municipality household-size lower-bound total exceeded age-sex population; preserved HARD population and household totals and relaxed FIRM within-municipality size interpretation.",
      "residual_persons": 39,
      "tolerance": "explicitly degraded C-tier municipality candidate; not release-pass"
    },
    {
      "source": "ASK census2024 household-size municipality",
      "municipality": "Ranillug",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_035",
      "reason": "Municipality household-size lower-bound total exceeded age-sex population; preserved HARD population and household totals and relaxed FIRM within-municipality size interpretation.",
      "residual_persons": 5,
      "tolerance": "explicitly degraded C-tier municipality candidate; not release-pass"
    },
    {
      "source": "ASK census2024 household-size municipality",
      "municipality": "Partesh",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_036",
      "reason": "Municipality household-size lower-bound total exceeded age-sex population; preserved HARD population and household totals and relaxed FIRM within-municipality size interpretation.",
      "residual_persons": 2,
      "tolerance": "explicitly degraded C-tier municipality candidate; not release-pass"
    }
  ],
  "zones_degraded": [
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_001",
      "municipality": "Deçan",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_002",
      "municipality": "Gjakovë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_003",
      "municipality": "Gllogovc",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_004",
      "municipality": "Gjilan",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_005",
      "municipality": "Dragash",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_006",
      "municipality": "Istog",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_007",
      "municipality": "Kaçanik",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_008",
      "municipality": "Klinë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_009",
      "municipality": "Fushë Kosovë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_010",
      "municipality": "Kamenicë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_011",
      "municipality": "Mitrovicë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_012",
      "municipality": "Leposaviq",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_013",
      "municipality": "Lipjan",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_014",
      "municipality": "Novobërdë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_015",
      "municipality": "Obiliq",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_016",
      "municipality": "Rahovec",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_017",
      "municipality": "Pejë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_018",
      "municipality": "Podujevë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_019",
      "municipality": "Prishtinë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_020",
      "municipality": "Prizren",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_021",
      "municipality": "Skenderaj",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_022",
      "municipality": "Shtime",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_023",
      "municipality": "Shtërpcë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_024",
      "municipality": "Suharekë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_025",
      "municipality": "Ferizaj",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_026",
      "municipality": "Viti",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_027",
      "municipality": "Vushtrri",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_028",
      "municipality": "Zubin Potok",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_029",
      "municipality": "Zveqan",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_030",
      "municipality": "Malishevë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_031",
      "municipality": "Junik",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_032",
      "municipality": "Mamushë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_033",
      "municipality": "Hani i Elezit",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_034",
      "municipality": "Graçanicë",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_035",
      "municipality": "Ranillug",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_036",
      "municipality": "Partesh",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_037",
      "municipality": "Kllokot",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_038",
      "municipality": "Mitrovica Veriore",
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "reason"

… truncated after 12,000 characters …

constraint_residuals.json

{
  "country": "XK",
  "run_id": "xk_population_national_candidate_2024_muni_bf4a4f87_seed420987",
  "hard_constraint_broken_rows": [],
  "residuals": [
    {
      "constraint_id": "XK_ASK_CENSUS2024_POPULATION_TOTAL",
      "level": "HARD",
      "target": 1602515,
      "observed": 1602515,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "XK_ASK_CENSUS2024_HOUSEHOLDS_TOTAL",
      "level": "HARD",
      "target": 366595,
      "observed": 366595,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "XK_ASK_CENSUS2024_CONVENTIONAL_DWELLINGS_TOTAL",
      "level": "FIRM",
      "target": 556779,
      "observed": 556791,
      "residual": 12,
      "relative_error": 2.1552537003011966e-05,
      "status": "PASS"
    }
  ],
  "municipality_diagnostics": [
    {
      "municipality": "Deçan",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_001",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 27775,
      "households_2024_total": 5909,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 27315,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 460,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 9839,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 3030,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 5909,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 3030,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 900,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Gjakovë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_002",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 78699,
      "households_2024_total": 18538,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 77761,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 938,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 26628,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 8360,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 18538,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 8090,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 0,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Gllogovc",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_003",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 48079,
      "households_2024_total": 9878,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 47765,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 314,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 12910,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 2725,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 9878,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 2725,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 307,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Gjilan",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_004",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 82980,
      "households_2024_total": 19897,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 82909,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 71,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 32578,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 12656,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 19897,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 12656,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 25,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Dragash",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_005",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 28896,
      "households_2024_total": 7132,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 28615,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 281,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 10817,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 4693,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 7132,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 3685,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 0,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Istog",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_006",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 33008,
      "households_2024_total": 7591,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 32672,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 336,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 13084,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 5385,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 7591,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 5385,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 108,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Kaçanik",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_007",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 27716,
      "households_2024_total": 5908,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 27636,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 80,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 8276,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 2449,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 5908,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 2368,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 0,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Klinë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_008",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 30503,
      "households_2024_total": 6753,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 30370,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 133,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 11192,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 4514,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 6753,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 4439,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 0,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Fushë Kosovë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_009",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 63949,
      "households_2024_total": 16085,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 64027,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 0,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 78,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 27628,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 10597,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 16085,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 10597,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 946,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Kamenicë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_010",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 22868,
      "households_2024_total": 5940,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 22911,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 0,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 43,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 9587,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 3356,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 5940,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 3356,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 291,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Mitrovicë",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_011",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 64742,
      "households_2024_total": 15337,
      "household_size_min_persons_before_10plus_allocation": 64624,
      "extra_persons_allocated_to_10plus_or_largest_households": 118,
      "firm_household_size_person_shortfall_relaxed": 0,
      "conventional_dwellings_2024": 22455,
      "vacant_dwellings_2024": 7806,
      "occupied_household_linked_dwellings_emitted": 15337,
      "vacant_dwellings_emitted": 7118,
      "unlinked_conventional_dwelling_residual_emitted": 0,
      "quality_tier": "C",
      "degradation_reason": "municipality aggregate controls only; no settlement/building/person microdata"
    },
    {
      "municipality": "Leposaviq",
      "location_code": "XK_MUNI_012",
      "population_2024_age_sex_sum": 9485,
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      "households

… truncated after 12,000 characters …

household_diagnostics.json

{
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  "households": 366595,
  "status": "aggregate_size_controls_exact_composition_modelled",
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    "No relationship matrix, family nucleus, marital/fertility, or household-role source integrated.",
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  ]
}

dwelling_building_diagnostics.json

{
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  "run_id": "xk_population_national_candidate_2024_muni_bf4a4f87_seed420987",
  "dwellings": 556791,
  "building_assignments": "unavailable",
  "building_assignment_reason": "No real building/address IDs integrated.",
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    "conventional_dwellings_2024": 556779,
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}

distribution_diagnostics.json

{
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    "dwelling_counts": "ASK 2024 municipality conventional/vacant dwelling FIRM counts exact at conventional total",
    "all_other_distributions": "unavailable_not_generated_for_national_candidate"
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}

uncertainty_summary.json

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}

source_provenance.json

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