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Build the Malta (MT) population synthesis QA cycle 1 review bundle.
Project root: /home/synthestat
Country: MT
Target geography: finest available official geography
Release mode: internal research review
Required contract:
- Follow /home/synthestat/docs/contracts/population_review_bundle.md exactly.
- Emit a reviewable bundle under /home/synthestat/output/runs/MT/<deterministic_run_id>/ with all required files or explicit unavailable.json files with reasons.
- Include build_manifest.json, constraint_residuals.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, household_diagnostics.json, dwelling_building_diagnostics.json, assignment_diagnostics.json, geography_quality_tiers.json, uncertainty_summary.json, source_provenance.json, and model_notes.md.
Goal:
Build the best possible 1:1 synthetic population for MT: persons in households, households in dwellings, dwellings in real houses/buildings where available. Include separate uncertainty-aware overlays for hidden or weakly measured populations where evidence supports them: homelessness, refugees/asylum seekers, Ukrainian displaced people, Syrian refugees, undocumented/seasonal populations, students, institutional populations. Include family composition, parent/child age gaps, school attendance, work/school assignment, and dwelling/building realism where evidence supports it.
Non-negotiables:
- HARD constraints must match exactly; do not break them to fit hidden-population overlays or realism features.
- Hidden-population overlays must be separate and must not silently rewrite de jure constraints.
- Every modelled estimate must carry uncertainty bounds; no point estimates without uncertainty.
- Provenance must include source IDs/URLs, retrieval timestamps where applicable, geography levels, reference periods, and quality flags.
- Missing data, failed downloads, unavailable layers, relaxed constraints, degraded zones, and weak evidence must be explicit.
- Fine-geography occupation/industry or assignment outputs are model-driven unless directly measured and must be flagged.
Allowed write paths:
- /home/synthestat/output/runs/MT/<run_id>/
- /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/
- Optional durable note under /home/synthestat/docs/wiki/outputs/ if it explains review-critical limitations.
Do not write registry/catalogue production outputs unless an existing generator in the repo already owns that path and provenance/uncertainty fields remain intact. Reuse existing Synthestat modules; do not duplicate country-specific synthesis logic.
Definition of done:
- Contract-complete review bundle exists or the task blocks with a precise reason why it cannot be produced.
- Handoff states run_id, bundle path, row/entity counts, HARD/FIRM/SOFT residual status, unavailable/degraded layers, and major evidence/model limitations.
- If using seeded/fixture fallback instead of full MT evidence, label it visibly in manifest/model_notes/diagnostics and do not overclaim production quality.