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MT national-scale population artifact gap: replace seeded PASS fixture or block with exact source/model requirements

blocked synth-modeler

Task metadata

id	t_6113a17f
title	MT national-scale population artifact gap: replace seeded PASS fixture or block with exact source/model requirements
assignee	synth-modeler
status	blocked
tenant	synthestat
priority	96
workspace_kind	dir
workspace_path	/home/synthestat
created_by	synth-manager
created_at	2026-05-19 20:16:20 CEST
started_at	2026-05-19 20:16:39 CEST
completed_at

Latest summary

MT national build blocked: existing inputs only support the 8-person seeded fixture; need concrete MT national age-sex cells, household composition/size source, national zone manifest, and national building/dwelling evidence or explicit unavailable layer before a credible 574,250-person / 242,800-household candidate can be built.

Body

Country: MT. Reviewer PASS/final delivery note is explicitly limited to an 8-person, two-zone internal seeded Malta slice; /home/synthestat/output/MT/persons.parquet currently has 8 rows. This is not national Malta product completion. Build a concrete national-scale/credible larger-country candidate if existing provenanced inputs support it; otherwise block with exact missing source/model requirements. Requirements: establish official national target population/households with provenance/reference period; compare synthetic row counts against target; preserve HARD > FIRM > SOFT > GUIDE; no silent constraint relaxation; keep hidden population, work/school/facility, dwelling/building, sparse fine-geography layers explicit with uncertainty/degradation flags; output docs/contracts/population_review_bundle.md-compliant artifacts and modeler handoffs. Do not relabel the seeded PASS bundle as national.

Parents

[
  "t_f47640f3"
]

Children

[
  "t_8af3e887"
]

Runs

ID	Profile	Status	Outcome	Started	Ended	Summary/error
99	synth-modeler	blocked	blocked	2026-05-19 20:16:39 CEST	2026-05-19 20:22:48 CEST	MT national build blocked: existing inputs only support the 8-person seeded fixture; need concrete MT national age-sex cells, household composition/size source, national zone manifest, and national building/dwelling evidence or explicit unavailable layer before a credible 574,250-person / 242,800-household candidate can be built.

Events

Time	Kind	Payload
2026-05-19 20:16:20 CEST	created	`{ "assignee": "synth-modeler", "status": "ready", "parents": [ "t_f47640f3" ], "tenant": "synthestat", "skills": null }`
2026-05-19 20:16:39 CEST	claimed	`{ "lock": "vmi3188806:1590352", "expires": 1779215499, "run_id": 99 }`
2026-05-19 20:16:39 CEST	spawned	`{ "pid": 1668840 }`
2026-05-19 20:22:44 CEST	commented	`{ "author": "synth-modeler", "len": 2502 }`
2026-05-19 20:22:48 CEST	blocked	`{ "reason": "MT national build blocked: existing inputs only support the 8-person seeded fixture; need concrete MT national age-sex cells, household composition/size source, national zone manifest, and national building/dwelling evidence or explicit unavailable layer before a credible 574,250-person / 242,800-household candidate can be built." }`

Comments

2026-05-19 20:22:44 CEST · synth-modeler

Blocked handoff for MT national-scale gap:

```json
{
  "country": "MT",
  "decision": "no_national_candidate_built_existing_inputs_insufficient",
  "status": "blocked_needs_more_sources_and_model_inputs",
  "official_targets": {
    "population": {
      "source_id": "EUROSTAT_DEMO_PJAN_MT_2025",
      "dataset": "demo_pjan",
      "query": "freq=A, unit=NR, age=TOTAL, sex=T, geo=MT, time=2025",
      "value": 574250,
      "reference_period": "2025-01-01",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "provider_updated": "2026-05-08T11:00:00+0200"
    },
    "households": {
      "source_id": "EUROSTAT_LFST_HHNHTYCH_MT_2025_TOTAL",
      "dataset": "lfst_hhnhtych",
      "query": "freq=A, unit=THS_HH, agechild=TOTAL, n_child=TOTAL, phhcomp=TOTAL, geo=MT, time=2025",
      "value": 242800,
      "raw_value": "242.8 thousand households",
      "reference_period": "2025 annual",
      "constraint_type": "FIRM",
      "provider_updated": "2026-04-22T23:00:00+0200"
    }
  },
  "current_artifacts": {
    "persons_path": "/home/synthestat/output/MT/persons.parquet",
    "person_rows": 8,
    "households_path": "/home/synthestat/output/MT/households.parquet",
    "household_rows": 8,
    "existing_seeded_bundle": "/home/synthestat/output/runs/MT/mt_population_review_cycle1_8f28c2dd_seed420987"
  },
  "handoff_files": [
    "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1820_build_status.md",
    "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1820_missing_requirements.md",
    "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/latest.md",
    "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1820_MT_target_gap.json"
  ],
  "verification": {
    "person_gap": "8 vs 574250",
    "household_gap": "8 vs 242800",
    "hard_population_pass_possible": false,
    "reason_no_build": "current MT repository inputs are seeded metadata/fixtures and lack concrete national cell-value distributions, national manifest, and national building/dwelling evidence"
  },
  "requests": [
    "MT national/locality population age-sex source table with provenance and retrieval timestamps",
    "MT household total/composition/size table; census/register preferred, Eurostat LFS only FIRM interim",
    "MT national geography frame/manifest beyond LOC_MT_TEST_*",
    "national building/dwelling stock or explicit unavailable national layer",
    "MT national run mode consuming those inputs and emitting the population review bundle contract"
  ]
}
```