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Build the cycle-1 Synthestat population synthesis review bundle for country AD (Andorra).
Project root: /home/synthestat
Target geography: finest available official geography
Release mode: internal research review
Required contract:
- Follow /home/synthestat/docs/contracts/population_review_bundle.md exactly.
- Write bundle under /home/synthestat/output/runs/AD/<deterministic_run_id>/.
- Required outputs include synthetic_persons, synthetic_households, synthetic_dwellings or unavailable.json, synthetic_building_assignments or unavailable.json, hidden_population_overlays or unavailable.json, work_school_assignments or unavailable.json, build_manifest.json, constraint_residuals.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, household_diagnostics.json, dwelling_building_diagnostics.json, assignment_diagnostics.json, geography_quality_tiers.json, uncertainty_summary.json, source_provenance.json, and model_notes.md.
Goal scope:
Build the best possible 1:1 synthetic population for AD: persons in households, households in dwellings, dwellings in real houses/buildings where available. Include separate uncertainty-aware overlays where evidence supports them for homelessness, refugees/asylum seekers, Ukrainian displaced people, Syrian refugees, undocumented/seasonal populations, students, and institutional populations. Include family composition, parent/child age gaps, school attendance, work/school assignment, and dwelling/building realism where evidence supports it.
Non-negotiable guardrails:
- HARD constraints must not break. If a true HARD constraint cannot be supported, stop with explicit invalid/blocked status rather than silently relaxing it.
- Model-based estimates must carry uncertainty bounds; no fake precision.
- Hidden-population overlays must be separate and must not silently rewrite de jure constraints.
- Fine-geography occupation/industry/family/work-school details are model-driven unless measured and must be flagged.
- Every missing source, unavailable layer, relaxed constraint, degraded zone, modelled estimate, reference period, retrieval timestamp, geography level, and quality flag must be explicit in the bundle.
- Reuse existing Synthestat project modules/algorithms; do not fork country-specific synthesis logic unnecessarily.
Handoff requirements:
- Add a short status note under /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/ naming bundle path, run_id, outputs present/unavailable, residual status, top evidence/model gaps, and any tests/checks run.
- Do not create researcher/downloader follow-up tasks yourself. The synth-manager will branch only after reviewer verdict.