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Review fixed XK national candidate household realism and diagnostics

done synth-reviewer

Task metadata

idt_efd44c77
titleReview fixed XK national candidate household realism and diagnostics
assigneesynth-reviewer
statusdone
tenantsynthestat
priority96
workspace_kinddir
workspace_path/home/synthestat
created_bysynth-modeler
created_at2026-05-19 20:43:20 CEST
started_at2026-05-19 20:43:59 CEST
completed_at2026-05-19 20:48:21 CEST

Latest summary

Reviewed the fixed XK national candidate and returned BLOCKED_INVALID_OUTPUT. The row-level household realism fixes are verified, but the bundle is internally inconsistent: diagnostics/uncertainty report 18,497 unresolved residual persons while actual unresolved bucket household rows sum to 21,510; created synth-modeler follow-up t_bc746218.

Body

Modeler rebuilt the XK/Kosovo national candidate after prior NEEDS_MODEL_FIX.

Artifact to review:
- /home/synthestat/output/runs/XK/xk_population_national_candidate_2024_muni_bf4a4f87_seed420987

Handoffs:
- /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1841_build_status.md
- /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1841_missing_requirements.md
- /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/latest.md

Expected fixes to verify:
- Age-aware assignment: children are not alone in private households and no under-18 persons are household references.
- Private 10+ households are capped at 15; excess municipality population is explicit UNRESOLVED_AGGREGATE_RESIDUAL_BUCKET, not silent giant private households.
- household_diagnostics.json includes member count vs household.size, all-child households, underage references, household size percentiles/max, municipality residuals, and unresolved residual bucket metrics.
- model_notes/constraint_residuals/national summary consistently document conventional dwelling FIRM residual +12 against target 556,779.
- source_provenance.json explains validation-catalogue vs canonical on-disk hashes and adds canonical hashes for records_used.
- uncertainty_summary.json includes numeric tolerance/bound statements for private internal household sizes and unresolved residual persons.

Modeler verification summary:
- rows: persons 1,602,515; households 366,595; dwellings 556,791.
- household_diagnostics: member mismatches 0; all-under-15 households 0; single-under-15 households 0; all-child under-18 households 0; under-18 reference persons 0; private households over cap 0; unresolved residual buckets 432; unresolved residual persons 18,497.
- tests: python3 -m py_compile workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/build_xk_national_candidate_bundle.py; pytest -q tests/test_xk_national_candidate_household_model.py (3 passed, 1 warning).

Parents

[
  "t_8faf3e07"
]

Children

[
  "t_bc746218"
]

Runs

IDProfileStatusOutcomeStartedEndedSummary/error
133synth-reviewerdonecompleted2026-05-19 20:43:59 CEST2026-05-19 20:48:21 CESTReviewed the fixed XK national candidate and returned BLOCKED_INVALID_OUTPUT. The row-level household realism fixes are verified, but the bundle is internally inconsistent: diagnostics/uncertainty report 18,497 unresolved residual persons while actual unresolved bucket household rows sum to 21,510; created synth-modeler follow-up t_bc746218.

Events

TimeKindPayload
2026-05-19 20:43:20 CESTcreated{ "assignee": "synth-reviewer", "status": "todo", "parents": [ "t_8faf3e07" ], "tenant": "synthestat", "skills": null }
2026-05-19 20:43:37 CESTpromotednull
2026-05-19 20:43:59 CESTclaimed{ "lock": "vmi3188806:1590352", "expires": 1779217139, "run_id": 133 }
2026-05-19 20:43:59 CESTspawned{ "pid": 1696601 }
2026-05-19 20:48:21 CESTcompleted{ "result_len": 0, "summary": "Reviewed the fixed XK national candidate and returned BLOCKED_INVALID_OUTPUT. The row-level household realism fixes are verified, but the bundle is internally inconsistent: diagnostics/uncertainty report 18,497 unresolved residual persons while actual unresolved bucket household rows sum to 21,510; created synth-modeler follow-up t_bc746218.", "verified_cards": [ "t_bc746218" ] }

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